How Karachi is so different from the rest of Pakistan.
Election 2008 has a lot of surprises in it. First of all it comes as a big surprise that the elections were relatively free and fair and by and large all the parties have accepted the election results. The second surprise came as the turnout in the elections was much higher than expected. The third surprise was the elections were held in a relatively peaceful environment. All of these surprises have come as pleasant surprise to the Pakistani people.
There are other aspects of the elections 2008 which are not that surprising. For example complete washout of MMA in NWFP and poor performance of Qaaf league in whole Pakistan. But one thing which is neither a surprise nor an expectation is the result from Karachi. In a word they were "strange" results. Strangely enough MQM was not affected by 12th May or the unpopularity of General (R) Musharraf. We must remember that MQM is the most vocal supporter and the only favorite party of the Retired General. Besides that MQM was also the most vocal critic of the Judges and was the only party that actually opposed the lawyers movement. And stangely again not only MQM was not affected but instead got more votes and more seats then ever in Karachi. Certain analysts attribute the victory of MQM to their development work during the last 5 years.
Looking at the following table, average turnout in Karachi is more than 50% , turnout is exceptionally high in the constituency where MQM is the winner , moreover their is a very high increase in registered voters over the year 2002. Besides that win margin in the constituencies where turnout is high is also high. On the other hand in the constituencies where PPP is winning the turnout is exceptionally low. If we compare the results with the voters turnout in Lahore, the turnout is very low and most importantly the increase in votes over election 2002 is very low, in two constituencies the voters have actually decreased.
Table (Karachi Turnout Analysis)
| Name | Winner | 2002 Registered Votes | 2008 Registered Votes | 2002 Turnout | 2008 Turnout | Increase in Votes | Increase in Turnoout | Win Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NA-239 | Abdul Qadir Patel(PPPP) | 228,031 | 312,401 | 75,773(33.23%) | 113,052(36.19%) | 84,370 | 37,279 | 32,827 |
| NA-240 | Khawaja Sohail Mansoor(MQM) | 222,359 | 279,723 | 87,336(39.28%) | 130,896(46.79%) | 57,364 | 43,560 | 7,179 |
| NA-241 | S.A.Iqbal Qadiri(MQM) | 201,562 | 268,582 | 74,558(36.99%) | 147,344(54.86%) | 67,020 | 72,786 | 57,381 |
| NA-242 | DR. ABDUL QADIR KHANZADA(MQM) | 221,227 | 296,822 | 99,335(44.90%) | 178,842(60.25%) | 75,595 | 79,507 | 120,598 |
| NA-243 | Abdul Waseem(MQM) | 250,670 | 333,290 | 94,001(37.50%) | 193,864(58.17%) | 82,620 | 99,863 | 145,617 |
| NA-244 | Shaikh Salahuddin(MQM) | 236,700 | 290,891 | 95,248(40.24%) | 187,074(64.31%) | 54,191 | 91,826 | 164,772 |
| NA-245 | Farhat Muhammad Khan.(MQM) | 255,754 | 344,004 | 103,587(40.50%) | 169,169(49.18%) | 88,250 | 65,582 | 133,765 |
| NA-246 | Sufyan Yousuf(MQM) | 261,736 | 310,045 | 97,965(37.43%) | 195,554(63.07%) | 48,309 | 97,589 | 180,192 |
| NA-247 | Dr.Nadeem Ehsan(MQM) | 243,006 | 303,455 | 88,302(36.34%) | 184,035(60.65%) | 60,449 | 95,733 | 154,044 |
| NA-248 | Nabeel Ahmed Gabol(PPPP) | 225,479 | 351,345 | 72,594(32.20%) | 106,414(30.29%) | 125,866 | 33,820 | 74,566 |
| NA-249 | Dr. Muhammad Farooq Sattar(MQM) | 250,626 | 388,099 | 86,581(34.55%) | 182,584(47.05%) | 137,473 | 96,003 | 30,623 |
| NA-250 | Khush Bakhat Shujaat(MQM) | 205,400 | 344,657 | 69,235(33.71%) | 104,179(30.23%) | 139,257 | 34,944 | 7,633 |
| NA-251 | Waseem Akhter(MQM) | 210,491 | 337,193 | 77,838(36.98%) | 133,697(39.65%) | 126,702 | 55,859 | 61,233 |
| NA-252 | Abdul Rasheed Godil(MQM) | 222,482 | 277,553 | 74,019(33.27%) | 117,550(42.35%) | 55,071 | 43,531 | 61,943 |
| NA-253 | Syed Haider Abbas Rizvi(MQM) | 249,365 | 398,527 | 80,804(32.40%) | 156,342(39.23%) | 149,162 | 75,538 | 49,319 |
| NA-254 | Dr. Muhammad Ayoub Shaikh(MQM) | 230,917 | 309,295 | 80,354(34.80%) | 155,050(50.13%) | 78,378 | 74,696 | 118,346 |
| NA-255 | Syed Asif Hassnain(MQM) | 246,368 | 331,927 | 101,447(41.18%) | 192,088(57.87%) | 85,559 | 90,641 | 126,582 |
| NA-256 | Iqbal Muhammad Ali Khan(MQM) | 261,912 | 371,067 | 91,683(35.01%) | 165,160(44.51%) | 109,155 | 73,477 | 99,662 |
| NA-257 | Sajid Ahmed(MQM) | 256,535 | 386,376 | 107,043(41.73%) | 188,363(48.75%) | 129,841 | 81,320 | 88,368 |
| NA-258 | Sher Muhammad Balcoh(PPPP) | 263,393 | 418,663 | 108,889(41.34%) | 171,807(41.04%) | 155,270 | 62,918 | 119,679 |
Lahore Vote Analysis
| Name | Winner | 2002 Registered Votes | 2008 Registered Votes | 2002 Turnout | 2008 Turnout | Increase in Votes | Increase in Turnoout | Win Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NA-118 | Muhammad Riaz(PML(N)) | 243,707 | 250,850 | 71,206(29.22%) | 94,620(37.72%) | 7,143 | 23,414 | 31,188 |
| NA-120 | Bilal Yaseen(PML(N)) | 232,800 | 268,552 | 72,806(31.27%) | 97,433(36.28%) | 35,752 | 24,627 | 41,565 |
| NA-121 | Mian Margoob Ahmad(PML(N)) | 256,605 | 303,962 | 81,918(31.92%) | 109,989(36.19%) | 47,357 | 28,071 | 44,193 |
| NA-122 | Sardar Ayaz Sadiq(PML(N)) | 279,245 | 331,381 | 93,257(33.40%) | 118,060(35.63%) | 52,136 | 24,803 | 54,674 |
| NA-123 | Makhdoom Muhammad Javed Hashmi(PML(N)) | 262,987 | 288,994 | 67,851(25.80%) | 97,697(33.81%) | 26,007 | 29,846 | 48,900 |
| NA-124 | Sheikh Rohale Asghar(PML(N)) | 255,757 | 275,697 | 77,865(30.44%) | 108,266(39.27%) | 19,940 | 30,401 | 47,801 |
| NA-125 | Khawaja Saad Rafique(PML(N)) | 255,313 | 311,540 | 76,713(30.05%) | 111,707(35.86%) | 56,227 | 34,994 | 46,160 |
| NA-126 | Umer Sohail Zia Butt(PML(N)) | 271,325 | 360,304 | 87,523(32.26%) | 119,748(33.24%) | 88,979 | 32,225 | 44,494 |
| NA-127 | Chaudhry Nasir Ahmed Bhutta(PML(N)) | 237,065 | 279,080 | 79,868(33.69%) | 94,390(33.82%) | 42,015 | 14,522 | 31,904 |
| NA-128 | Malik Muhammad Afzal Khokhar(PML(N)) | 244,140 | 275,267 | 95,690(39.19%) | 125,374(45.55%) | 31,127 | 29,684 | 28,119 |
| NA-129 | Tariq Shabbir Advocate(PPPP) | 211,530 | 200,935 | 80,988(38.29%) | 96,154(47.85%) | -10,595 | 15,166 | 7,546 |
| NA-130 | Samina Khalid Ghurki(PPPP) | 232,372 | 226,575 | 86,186(37.09%) | 98,851(43.63%) | -5,797 | 12,665 | 3,651 |
