How Karachi is so different from the rest of Pakistan.

Posted by admin on 2008-02-25 in elections, news, rigging

Election 2008 has a lot of surprises in it. First of all it comes as a big surprise that the elections were relatively free and fair and by and large all the parties have accepted the election results. The second surprise came as the turnout in the elections was much higher than expected. The third surprise was the elections were held in a relatively peaceful environment. All of these surprises have come as pleasant surprise to the Pakistani people.

There are other aspects of the elections 2008 which are not that surprising. For example complete washout of MMA in NWFP and poor performance of Qaaf league in whole Pakistan. But one thing which is neither a surprise nor an expectation is the result from Karachi. In a word they were "strange" results. Strangely enough MQM was not affected by 12th May or the unpopularity of General (R) Musharraf. We must remember that MQM is the most vocal supporter and the only favorite party of the Retired General. Besides that MQM was also the most vocal critic of the Judges and was the only party that actually opposed the lawyers movement. And stangely again not only MQM was not affected but instead got more votes and more seats then ever in Karachi. Certain analysts attribute the victory of MQM to their development work during the last 5 years.

Looking at the following table, average turnout in Karachi is more than 50% , turnout is exceptionally high in the constituency where MQM is the winner , moreover their is a very high increase in registered voters over the year 2002. Besides that win margin in the constituencies where turnout is high is also high. On the other hand in the constituencies where PPP is winning the turnout is exceptionally low. If we compare the results with the voters turnout in Lahore, the turnout is very low and most importantly the increase in votes over election 2002 is very low, in two constituencies the voters have actually decreased.

Table (Karachi Turnout Analysis)

Name Winner 2002 Registered Votes 2008 Registered Votes 2002 Turnout 2008 Turnout Increase in Votes Increase in Turnoout Win Margin
NA-239 Abdul Qadir Patel(PPPP) 228,031 312,401 75,773(33.23%) 113,052(36.19%) 84,370 37,279 32,827
NA-240 Khawaja Sohail Mansoor(MQM) 222,359 279,723 87,336(39.28%) 130,896(46.79%) 57,364 43,560 7,179
NA-241 S.A.Iqbal Qadiri(MQM) 201,562 268,582 74,558(36.99%) 147,344(54.86%) 67,020 72,786 57,381
NA-242 DR. ABDUL QADIR KHANZADA(MQM) 221,227 296,822 99,335(44.90%) 178,842(60.25%) 75,595 79,507 120,598
NA-243 Abdul Waseem(MQM) 250,670 333,290 94,001(37.50%) 193,864(58.17%) 82,620 99,863 145,617
NA-244 Shaikh Salahuddin(MQM) 236,700 290,891 95,248(40.24%) 187,074(64.31%) 54,191 91,826 164,772
NA-245 Farhat Muhammad Khan.(MQM) 255,754 344,004 103,587(40.50%) 169,169(49.18%) 88,250 65,582 133,765
NA-246 Sufyan Yousuf(MQM) 261,736 310,045 97,965(37.43%) 195,554(63.07%) 48,309 97,589 180,192
NA-247 Dr.Nadeem Ehsan(MQM) 243,006 303,455 88,302(36.34%) 184,035(60.65%) 60,449 95,733 154,044
NA-248 Nabeel Ahmed Gabol(PPPP) 225,479 351,345 72,594(32.20%) 106,414(30.29%) 125,866 33,820 74,566
NA-249 Dr. Muhammad Farooq Sattar(MQM) 250,626 388,099 86,581(34.55%) 182,584(47.05%) 137,473 96,003 30,623
NA-250 Khush Bakhat Shujaat(MQM) 205,400 344,657 69,235(33.71%) 104,179(30.23%) 139,257 34,944 7,633
NA-251 Waseem Akhter(MQM) 210,491 337,193 77,838(36.98%) 133,697(39.65%) 126,702 55,859 61,233
NA-252 Abdul Rasheed Godil(MQM) 222,482 277,553 74,019(33.27%) 117,550(42.35%) 55,071 43,531 61,943
NA-253 Syed Haider Abbas Rizvi(MQM) 249,365 398,527 80,804(32.40%) 156,342(39.23%) 149,162 75,538 49,319
NA-254 Dr. Muhammad Ayoub Shaikh(MQM) 230,917 309,295 80,354(34.80%) 155,050(50.13%) 78,378 74,696 118,346
NA-255 Syed Asif Hassnain(MQM) 246,368 331,927 101,447(41.18%) 192,088(57.87%) 85,559 90,641 126,582
NA-256 Iqbal Muhammad Ali Khan(MQM) 261,912 371,067 91,683(35.01%) 165,160(44.51%) 109,155 73,477 99,662
NA-257 Sajid Ahmed(MQM) 256,535 386,376 107,043(41.73%) 188,363(48.75%) 129,841 81,320 88,368
NA-258 Sher Muhammad Balcoh(PPPP) 263,393 418,663 108,889(41.34%) 171,807(41.04%) 155,270 62,918 119,679

Lahore Vote Analysis
Name Winner 2002 Registered Votes 2008 Registered Votes 2002 Turnout 2008 Turnout Increase in Votes Increase in Turnoout Win Margin
NA-118 Muhammad Riaz(PML(N)) 243,707 250,850 71,206(29.22%) 94,620(37.72%) 7,143 23,414 31,188
NA-120 Bilal Yaseen(PML(N)) 232,800 268,552 72,806(31.27%) 97,433(36.28%) 35,752 24,627 41,565
NA-121 Mian Margoob Ahmad(PML(N)) 256,605 303,962 81,918(31.92%) 109,989(36.19%) 47,357 28,071 44,193
NA-122 Sardar Ayaz Sadiq(PML(N)) 279,245 331,381 93,257(33.40%) 118,060(35.63%) 52,136 24,803 54,674
NA-123 Makhdoom Muhammad Javed Hashmi(PML(N)) 262,987 288,994 67,851(25.80%) 97,697(33.81%) 26,007 29,846 48,900
NA-124 Sheikh Rohale Asghar(PML(N)) 255,757 275,697 77,865(30.44%) 108,266(39.27%) 19,940 30,401 47,801
NA-125 Khawaja Saad Rafique(PML(N)) 255,313 311,540 76,713(30.05%) 111,707(35.86%) 56,227 34,994 46,160
NA-126 Umer Sohail Zia Butt(PML(N)) 271,325 360,304 87,523(32.26%) 119,748(33.24%) 88,979 32,225 44,494
NA-127 Chaudhry Nasir Ahmed Bhutta(PML(N)) 237,065 279,080 79,868(33.69%) 94,390(33.82%) 42,015 14,522 31,904
NA-128 Malik Muhammad Afzal Khokhar(PML(N)) 244,140 275,267 95,690(39.19%) 125,374(45.55%) 31,127 29,684 28,119
NA-129 Tariq Shabbir Advocate(PPPP) 211,530 200,935 80,988(38.29%) 96,154(47.85%) -10,595 15,166 7,546
NA-130 Samina Khalid Ghurki(PPPP) 232,372 226,575 86,186(37.09%) 98,851(43.63%) -5,797 12,665 3,651